Traders Reel In Fed Cut Bets as Strong Job Data Drags on Bonds
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(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
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The Friday selloff lifted yields across maturities by as much as 12 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to Fed rate changes. The benchmark 10-year note’s rate rose 12 basis points to 4.51%, and yields across the spectrum once again exceeded 4%.
Interest-rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September, compared with a probability of about 90% on Thursday. The amount of easing priced in for the year declined to about 43 basis points, fewer than two quarter-point cuts.
“You are seeing a little bit of the bond market reaction here of pricing out a bit of the expectations in terms of the Fed,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “The big takeaway is a slowing-but-still strong labor market.”
Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 downward revisions to the prior two months. The median forecast of economists was for an increase of 126,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while hourly wages picked up.
Gains for US equities also curbed demand for bonds. The S&P 500 rose about 1%.
Following the job report, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut rates by a full point, intensifying his pressure campaign against Chair Jerome Powell.
Fed policymakers have said they are waiting for more data before lowering rates as they balance the risks of still elevated inflation and a potential economic slowdown. Officials have said it could take months to gain clarity on the economic impacts of sweeping policy changes, particularly around trade.
Consumer price index data for May, scheduled to be released June 11, is expected to slow acceleration, according to the median economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The overall rate is seen rising to 2.5% from 2.3%, the core rate to 2.9% from 2.8%.
Fed officials traditionally observe a communications blackout beginning the second Saturday before a meeting, a period that begins June 7. Also ahead next week are Treasury auctions of three- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, whose expected yields are higher as a result of Friday’s selloff.