During the 2016 election season, many analysts and prognosticators (including me) predicted the economy would tank if voters elected Donald Trump president. They turned out to be wrong.
Or were they just premature?
Developments over the next several months will provide some important clues. During his first year in office, Trump presided over a strengthening economy and booming stock market, due in part to the sharp cuts in business taxes Trump promised—then delivered. Employers added 2.1 million jobs during Trump’s first 12 months in office. The S&P 500 stock index rose 25%.
But stocks are now wobbling, and economists are warning of new dangers to the economy—thanks largely to Trump. Among the campaign promises Trump has yet to fulfill are new tariffs on imported goods, which, to Trump’s mind, are necessary to revive the U.S. manufacturing sector. So Trump now to plans to impose tariffs of 25% on all imported steel and 10% on all imported aluminum.
It’s hard to find an economist who thinks this is a good idea. The real question is how bad, and how dangerous, Trump’s tariffs might be. Nations affected by the tariffs are almost certain to retaliate with tariffs of their own on American exports. If that’s where it ends—trading partners doing nominal damage to each other’s economies, for purely political reasons—the economy will adapt. But if broader trade wars break out, with whole new classes of tariffs on a wide range of products, markets seem likely to heave, and business likely to slow or halt investment until it all sorts itself out.
Still unfulfilled campaign promises
Trump seems unconcerned, for now. But it’s worth pointing out that the stock market is flat for the year, which is pretty unusual given that the tax cuts are expected to generate record corporate profits. Markets are adjusting to the possibility of slightly higher inflation, and most forecasters still think stocks will end handsomely higher in 2018. But that confidence dims with every tweet and utterance from the White House indicating Trump’s fondness for tariffs and his belief that “trade wars are good.”
Many forecasters—including Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, Citibank and Macroeconomic Advisers—predicted the economy would quake, and stocks fall, if Trump won. But those analyses were based on Trump doing what he said he was going to do, which Trump hasn’t, so far. As a reminder, while campaigning, Trump said he’d imposed tariffs of 45% on all imports from China and 35% on imports from Mexico. Trump hasn’t done either of those things, so far, but he’s now testing the waters on tariffs for the first time, with his proposed steel and aluminum duties. Trump also said he’d revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, or withdraw from it completely (work in progress, outcome unknown). And he vowed to kick 11 million undocumented immigrants out of the country and reduce the number of legal immigrants (also works in progress).