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Bonuses across almost all of Wall Street are on pace to be lower this year, a wild reversal compared to six months ago, when firms were more optimistic about bigger payouts in 2025.
Most Wall Street workers are expected to see some decline in compensation, but IPO bankers are estimated to see their bonuses fall the most — as much as 20% from last year — according to compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates.
That compares to a jump of as much as 25% in bonuses for these same IPO specialists that Johnson Associates initially forecast at the end of last year.
"Hopefully, we're going to look back in three months or six months and say that we were wildly wrong and that things are a lot better," Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, told Yahoo Finance in an interview.
"That's what we always hope, but I wouldn't bet on it," he added.
Dealmaking of all varieties, especially for IPOs, hit the brakes last month when President Trump unveiled sweeping "reciprocal" tariff announcements for the rest of the world as the stock market faced a volatile rout.
That's also anticipated to "clog up" the private equity industry as it seeks to deliver returns to investors, according to Johnson.
Even though markets have since recovered from that rout, many companies are still holding off on new public offerings until they have more clarity about the full slate of tariffs from the administration, which is still negotiating new trade deals with many countries.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs
Stocks of traditional financial firms across the sector have dropped since the beginning of the year, with private asset managers, including Apollo (APO), Blackstone (BX), and KKR (KKR), seeing the biggest declines, followed by regional banks. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
It's not just IPO bankers who are expected to see a pullback in compensation. Those working at hedge funds, private equity and asset management firms, as well as M&A, commercial, and retail bankers, and even corporate staff are expected to see as much as a 10% decline in pay.
One of the few groups expected to rake in more is the part of Wall Street that typically benefits from any volatility: traders.
Stock traders and their teams who sell trading strategies are likely to see their bonuses potentially jump as much as 25%. Debt underwriters and those in the niche alternatives business known as secondaries are also expected to catch some benefit from the turmoil, according to Johnson.