USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US dollar pressing downtrend line

The US dollar is pressing the downtrend line from a larger consolidation area in the form of a symmetrical triangle. If we can break above the weekly candle stick, that could be a very good sign. However, in the current trade war environment it’s hard to tell whether that’s going to happen or not. · FX Empire

Christopher Lewis

Updated Fri, Sep 21, 2018, 11:17 PM

The US dollar has rallied significantly during the week, pressing the downtrend line from the symmetrical triangle. If we can break above the top of the weekly candle, then I think that the market is free to go much higher. I would represent this as an opportunity if we get a daily close above the ¥113 level. At this point, I think that pullbacks will continue to be supported, especially near the ¥111 level. I think this pair will continue to rally based upon what’s going on in the stock markets, but at this point it’s difficult to suggest that it’s going to be easy.

Keep in mind that the Sino-American trade relations will continue to have its influence on this pair as well, but if we can focus on something purely fundamental along the lines of the interest rate differentials, then this pair should continue to rally. I suspect that eventually we will reach towards the ¥114.50 level, but it’s not going to be a very easy trade to take and that there will be a lot of heartache along the way if you use a position that is too large. However, if we were to turn around and fall below the ¥111 level, then the market could break down rather significantly. Overall though, I do prefer the upside and I think that we will get that move, we just need some good news to push things along.