Volatility 101: Should GME Group Holdings (HKG:8188) Shares Have Dropped 48%?

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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the GME Group Holdings Limited (HKG:8188) share price is down 48% in the last year. That contrasts poorly with the market return of -3.6%. Because GME Group Holdings hasn't been listed for many years, the market is still learning about how the business performs.

Check out our latest analysis for GME Group Holdings

GME Group Holdings isn't a profitable company, so it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In just one year GME Group Holdings saw its revenue fall by 10%. That's not what investors generally want to see. Shareholders have seen the share price drop 48% in that time. What would you expect when revenue is falling, and it doesn't make a profit? We think most holders must believe revenue growth will improve, or else costs will decline.

The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).

SEHK:8188 Income Statement, April 14th 2019
SEHK:8188 Income Statement, April 14th 2019

Balance sheet strength is crucual. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Dividend Lost

It's important to keep in mind that we've been talking about the share price returns, which don't include dividends, while the total shareholder return does. Many would argue the TSR gives a more complete picture of the value a stock brings to its holders. GME Group Holdings's TSR over the last year is -45%; better than its share price return. Although the company had to cut dividends, it has paid cash to shareholders in the past.

A Different Perspective

We doubt GME Group Holdings shareholders are happy with the loss of 45% over twelve months. That falls short of the market, which lost 3.6%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. The share price decline has continued throughout the most recent three months, down 9.2%, suggesting an absence of enthusiasm from investors. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.