Should Weakness in Medibank Private Limited's (ASX:MPL) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

Simply Wall St

Thu, Apr 14, 2022, 8:13 PM 4 min read

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Medibank Private's Earnings Growth And 22% ROE

First thing first, we like that Medibank Private has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 9.9% the company's ROE is quite impressive. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that Medibank Private's net income shrunk at a rate of 2.4% over the past five years. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Medibank Private's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 6.9% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:MPL Past Earnings Growth April 15th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is MPL worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether MPL is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Medibank Private Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 85% (implying that 15% of the profits are retained), most of Medibank Private's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

In addition, Medibank Private has been paying dividends over a period of seven years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 84%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Medibank Private's future ROE will be 24% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

In total, it does look like Medibank Private has some positive aspects to its business. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.