Want to take a look at ISM services index. That is crossing the wire right now, coming in at 49.9. Economists were expecting 52 here. Just taking a look at that data again as it is crossing the wire, the ISM services prices paid coming in here at 68.7. That is also a beat to the upside of the estimate, which was 65.1. New orders, a little bit of a miss, perhaps some falloff after a pull forward due to trade policy. That came in at 46.4. The estimate was for 51.6. Services employment. This is interesting off the back of ADP, showing a little bit more strength, the survey data indicating 49, the actual number coming in at 50.7. But again, that ISM services index headline number coming in here at 49.9, the estimate being 52. So seeing just a bit of weakness there, falling again below the prior month as well and below the survey data indicated by the economists that were surveyed for the print as well. Joining me now on this, we've got Jose Torres. He is Interactive Brokers senior economist. Jose, great to speak with you this morning. Talk to me about your takeaway from those numbers.

Great to see you, Madison. Good morning. Well, this morning we got numbers that weren't that robust, and that's an expectation given that we've had significant uncertainty on the horizon in the past few weeks with Liberation Day, with on and off tariffs, with progress with certain trade partners, etc. So there is an expectation of hesitancy as we turn the page and look forward to more economic reacceleration themes like lighter taxation, more capital expenditures, milder regulations, low energy costs, etc. I think equity traders are bullish here. Uh they they see corporate earnings growing, strengthening into year end. As far as treasuries, you know, I think that yields are too high. I think that inflation is at 2.1%. A lot of what we hear about price pressures is fears, not actual manifestation. And with the 10-year here at roughly in the 440s and the 30-year back and off of 5% Madison, we've seen a lot of defense at those pivotal critical levels and also 4% on the two-year. So, you know, overall, soft day for economic data, but yesterday we got a really strong jolts number. So it's been mixed overall.

So where does that net out for the Federal Reserve then?

I think Madison, absolutely nets out they should start reducing rates this month. You know, will they? You know, our prediction market here at Interactive Brokers is a little shaky on whether they're going to reduce rates as soon as June or July. You know, are expecting two to three cuts by year end. Uh Fed funds in in the fours with inflation at 2.1, that's really restrictive in my view, and I think they got to bring rates down.