Gas price outlook for summer & Memorial Day weekend: Analyst

In This Article:

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to discuss the outlook for national average gas prices ahead of the holiday weekend, noting that prices are $0.44 lower today than they were a year ago.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.

00:00 Josh Lipton

Well, we're approaching Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start to the summer driving season. Naturally, gas prices top of mind for consumers as they face inflation pressures. For more now, we're bringing in Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Gas Buddy. Patrick, always great to see you on the show. So, listen, it's Memorial Day weekend, Patrick, that means millions of Americans are going to get ready to hit the highway. Let's start high level, Patrick. The national average, where are we, Patrick, right now, and where do you see us headed kind of near intermediate term?

00:44 Patrick De Haan

Yeah, Josh, there's a lot of headlines flying around about where prices are, where they've been. So, to set the context right, it's the lowest Memorial Day holiday weekend since 2021. Gas prices have come down from their peak of 2022. Every year we've seen a decline since then. Where we stand today, the national average at this moment about $3.19 a gallon. It's inching down slightly. Prices still up in the last few weeks though. So, a lot of Americans hearing these headlines, well, gas prices have gone up. Yes, they have a little bit, but compared to last year, we are over 44 cents a gallon lower than a year ago, and that's going to collectively save Americans over $170 million every day of this kickoff to summer.

01:37 Josh Lipton

Wow. And so, Patrick, here's my question. If you're around 319, you take out your crystal ball, where do you think that's headed?

01:50 Patrick De Haan

Well, traditionally, Memorial Day is actually the highest of summer holidays when it comes to gas prices, and that's because maintenance season has just started wrapping up. The transition to summer gasoline is fresh over. As we progress through the summer, supply typically slowly builds up over time, and that typically puts downward pressure on gas prices through the summer. Now, there are some caveats, especially this year, hurricane season. NOAA just today coming out with an above average forecast. Some of the nation's largest refineries down in Texas, Louisiana, we'll have to keep an eye on that. The other uncertainty really has to do with trade and tariffs. A lot of those are paused right now. But as goes the economy, as go gas prices. If there are any surprise developments or policy shifts, those could impact gas prices this summer as well.

02:56 Josh Lipton

So, we could talk about what's happening nationally, Patrick. I'm also always curious to get your take, your insight as to what's happening regionally. Where across the country, Patrick, right now, where we see the highest prices? Where, where, where are some of the lowest?

03:18 Patrick De Haan

Well, you can see that map over my shoulder, the West Coast almost always the winner when it comes to the highest gas prices. California starting to see some relief. Refinery issues have really dogged the West Coast. If you're going to California, you're going to be setting a lot more of your paycheck aside, $4.87 a gallon. But the good news for the West Coast, we're starting to see resupplies flow in. That'll cut costs. California will start to decline. The lowest prices in the Gulf Coast, low taxes and proximity to major refineries, gas prices all under $3 a gallon through the Gulf Coast. In the Great Lakes, a new refinery problem just a few days ago is causing a bit of a spike here going into Memorial Day weekend. Really the surprise, New England, the Northeast, seeing prices 60 to 70 cents a gallon lower than last year.

04:23 Josh Lipton

I'm always curious, Patrick. Let's say, um, as a guy who thinks so much about this. Let's say you're taking a road trip, Patrick. You know, it's time to fill up the tank. Any tips and tricks, Patrick? Do you just go, hey, listen, wherever, wherever I'm closest? Do you shop around a little? Any, any tips and tricks from, from Patrick De Haan on that?

04:56 Patrick De Haan

Well, I'm a bit of an analyst. I'm a little bit of a nerd when it comes to filling my tank up for less. So, I always pull out an app, whether that's a GasBuddy app or Google Maps or even some of the C-store apps I pull out just to make sure that the gas prices are right. But the map behind me again, it's a little tricky when you cross a state boundary. That's a danger zone for gas prices. There's a lot of these tricks. California and Arizona, that boundary on I-10, a dollar a gallon difference. Illinois and Missouri, 50 cent a gallon difference. A lot of these borders exist. You cross into another state, everyone loves to take photos of welcome to whatever state. Gas prices may go up or down by 30 to 50 cents a gallon, like I said, extreme instances of a dollar a gallon. So, no matter where you're going this summer, make sure you pack an app that can show you where gas prices are. There's not really a golden rule to how gas prices work. So, the one thing I would do, always shop around, and then how you drive, Josh. We're all in a rush this summer, but use cruise control, slow down out there just a little bit, that'll help you get 5 to 15% more miles on every tank.

06:17 Josh Lipton

Great insight as always, Patrick. Thank you so much, sir.

06:23 Patrick De Haan

Thanks, Josh.