US markets (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) may be growing numb to trade headlines as investors look past the noise and focus on economic data.
Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist Kenny Polcari joins Market Domination to explain that a real, signed trade deal — not just reprieves and handshakes — is what it will take to push stocks meaningfully higher.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here.
Let's get more on the latest market moves now. Want to welcome in Kenny Polcari, Slate, Slatestone Wealth Chief market strategist. Kenny, it is good to see you. So, I I saw Kenny that you are making the argument, my friend, that we cannot surge higher here, Kenny, unless we get a real trade deal. Not a trade truce, not a trade reprieve, not a trade handshake, but a real trade deal. That's what it's going to take if we want to surge higher, Kenny.
Well, that's what it's going to take if the market's finally going to get comfortable with the deals that getting done because right now what all we've had on any of this is just a handshake agreement or an understanding and look what's happened. China came back, or Trump came back and said that China already violated that understanding that they have, uh and so the other ones are starting to stall. So, I think in order for the market to really, you know, uh stick its heels in the ground and move forward is they're going to have someone's going to have to say, here's the deal, it's done, we're going to sign on the dotted line.
But those aren't forthcoming anytime soon. It doesn't feel like, right? Because everything that we've had to your point thus far, they've been these sort of memoranda of understanding, if that, or just an agreement to work on an agreement. And as we know, and we've said many times, these trade agreements can take weeks, they can take months, they can take years. So what does that mean then?
Right. So we're hoping it doesn't take years, right? Because that would be a problem. But the EU already came out. Remember when he threatened on the EU, they came right back, Ursula von der Leyen came right back and said, you know, they're going to fast track some of these trade talks. So I don't mean that, you know, they need to have one tomorrow, but they absolutely have to have more than this memorandum of understanding like they had with China two weeks ago when everyone thought, okay, it's all great, now we got China. China really wasn't in the hopper yet, right? They just they just kind of were laying the groundwork for more talks. You need to see just more than that in order for the market to really
Is it your sense though, Kenny, as we wait for the the big deal that comes, that the market is getting a little numb to the Trump on again, off again proclamations? I ask because Dr. Ed Yardeni was writing about that in his morning note to his clients. He was saying like, it feels to him like the stock market is basically barely reacting anymore to these proclamations.
Well, and it's funny, I said that in my note today too, that I thought that the market was starting to look through all this trade noise and start to really once again focus on the Mac on the macro data, the hard data and the soft data because it feels like, you know, uh fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, I mean, fool me once, shame on you, fool me once shame on me, which is what I think the the market is starting to feel with these trade talks. Every once in a while, you know, he raises the bar, he makes all this noise. I think people are getting numb to that and they're really just kind of looking through that because the robust data is not falling off the edge. The hard data remains robust.
Do you think that's is a smart move to stay a little numb, a little indifferent to look through?
No, I I think you have to look through because I think the trade deals are going to get done. Look, they these countries need us. They need to come and trade with us. So these trade deals have to be renegotiated and it's actually okay to renegotiate trade deals that are decades old. The world changes, everything changes like everything. It needs to get rewritten and that's okay. Um and so I think I think the sense is that most people feel the trade deals will come. It's not going to be as onerous as maybe they thought it was originally going to be and so you have to start to focus moving forward, which doesn't mean you shouldn't remain somewhat cautious because you know, any headline could really send us tumbling if it's super negative, right?