Host Brad Smith listens to a variety of personal finance experts while watching this morning's moves in the stock market on today's episode of Wealth.
BMO Capital Markets Managing Director Simeon Siegel shares his takeaways on the retail sector after the latest earnings season.
Deloitte Global Aviation Leader Bryan Terry discusses the current forecasts for American travel and trip planning.
Yahoo Finance consumer affairs reporter Jordan Weissmann discusses the changes that could come to Obamacare if Republicans signed President Trump's proposed tax and spending bill.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Wealth here.
It's time for Yahoo Finance's market. Stocks falling as President Trump reignites trade war concerns threatening the EU with the 50% tariff starting June 1st, saying that talks with the bloc are going nowhere. Apple also top trending ticker on Yahoo Finance falling as the company is also threatened with increased tariffs. The president recommending a 25% tariff on the company's iPhones if it doesn't start making them in the US. Decker, the maker of Uggs and hoka, hit with a series of analyst.Downgrades after issuing a weak outlook, Chelsea Group, KeyBank, and Evercore all slashing their ratings on the stock, citing Decker's slowing growth trajectory. Trade uncertainty weighing on retailers broadly. Ross Stores shares tumbling after withdrawing fully guidance. The company saying over half its goods originate from China and its profits will likely take a hit from tariffs. That's the finance market minute. For more on what's trending on Yahoo, you can scan the QR code below.
Welcome to Wealth brought to you by Synchronity. I'm Brad Smith, and this is Yahoo Finance's guide to building your financial footprint. Our community of experts will give you the resources, tools, tips, and the tricks that you need to grow your money. On today's show, portfolio checking, we'll discuss why it's important to be consistent with how you invest and President Trump's tax bill passed the House and heads to the Senate. We'll discuss how.The potential new $40,000 salt deduction cap could impact your tax bill. Plus retail report card. We'll discuss the retail earnings season with an expert who will break down all of the stocks that could have some room to run here. We've got all that much more coming up during this hour, but first, let's take a look at some of the market action. We're 90 minutes into the trading day.Stocks are falling as President Trump threatens tariffs on the EU and Apple. My next guest says the most important thing in an uncertain market environment is staying consistent. Joining me now we've got Tyler Elgar, who is the gradient Investments portfolio manager. Great to have you here with us. So how do you recommend that investors stay consistent right now?
Yeah, look, there's a lot of uncertainties and your guests talked about in the last, the last segment as well. There's just nobody knows what President Trump and his administration are going to be doing with tariffs. We woke up this morning to news ofThe potential 50% tariff on the EU block. We don't know. And so there's a lot of uncertainties. Investors start to get concerned, right? Investing is emotional. And so we get questions quite a bit during these times of, should I go to cash? Should I not invest my money right now, what should I be doing? And our theme is always stay consistent with your investments, whether you're doing a weekly, monthly, quarterly contribution.Continue that investment pattern because over time, what's more important is time in the market versus t time in the market. And even if you do go to cash, trying to reinvest that cash at the, at the right time can be a very challenging thing to do. Most professionals can't even do that. So, remaining consistent to your investment pattern and not worrying about theUncertainties because over time those uncertainties start to go away or we get new uncertainties that we start to focus on so remaining consistent to that plan is is what's most important
and investing is absolutely emotional but at the same time because you have so many people are saying, you know, it's my money and I want it safe or I want it to grow, but.In a time of the uncertainty or the lack of clarity on some of the trade policy, where are the safety areas, the safe havens that investors can perhaps at least in the interim find some comfort in?
Well, if you asked me that a couple of years ago, I'd say bonds. But bonds have been very, very volatile. We saw how 2022 was. We've seen the recent news on the, uh, 20-year Treasury auction. Uh, 17% of dealers had to take it, and so we saw that concern over US debt, uh, the deficit, and so we've seen more volatility this year than we typically see in most years for bonds. But I would still say staying on that shorter end of, of the yield curve, if you want to have some ofThat's safety, whether that's, you know, the 36 month treasuries, whether that's even going out to the 2-year, right, limiting that duration risk on the bonds, I think is important. Also, when you start talking about shorter term investments in bonds, we start to think about the Federal Reserve and their actions, markets pricing in 2 cuts this year. So you could even get some potential price appreciation there if the Federal Reserve does stick to that 22, rate cuts for this year. So,I think if you wanna quote unquote hide out, I think that's really where you wanna go is that shorter end of the curve uh uh for treasuries and, and any corporate bonds as well, you
know, as we think about some of the hot areas of the market and we'll start with Apple because that's been one of the.Focuses this morning and over the course of the trading session is an announcement like what we've seen today, especially with it targeting on the tariff front targeting the most successful product for the company, the element that makes their ecosystem so sticky, does that make Apple a company that is is hard to touch or layer into if you already have a position right now?
Yeah, I think you still hold Apple, right? I think at the end of the day, Apple is a very sticky product. They've done a fantastic job of creating that environment or that ecosystem of products. And if you ask anybody who has an iPhone, if Apple were to raise the price from $1000 to $2000 for the iPhone, chances are a majority of those consumers would continue buying the iPhone, right? Just because of that ecosystem.So do they have near term headwinds? Absolutely. But over a longer period of time, which is what most people are holding Apple for, Apple's not that day trade type of stock. So if you're going to be holding Apple for that long term, I think the company is gonna be just fine.
OK, lastly, Nvidia set to report earnings, of course, one of the bellwether earnings reports every season year. What are your anticipations there and how should investors be evaluating Nvidia going into the print?
We own it, we own Nvidia. We like it. Uh, I think there's gonna be a lot of commentary in the quarter about the second half of the year versus the quarter itself because there are some near-term headwinds, uh, with the H-20 chip and, and the ban on shipments to China. Uh, there, uh, other chip, the 200, they've had some issues as well. So I think that the focus is gonna be more on the second half and the, the acceleration um of their products. And so,We, we still like Nvidia. We think there could be near term, but we actually do like Broadcom or, or the Ticker AVGO a little bit more, um, just based on their A6 division. But I think Nvidia in general, again, similar to Apple, if you think about AI and the continuation of it, it's gonna be a great company to own. We heard it meta increase their capex towards AI.Uh, Microsoft and Amazon said demand is not slowing at all. They just have capacity constraints, uh, for their cloud and and AI products. So, look, I think over a longer period of time, Nvidia is going to be just fine. Focus less on this quarter and focus more on the second half of the year for
Nvidia. Tyler, good to see you. Thanks for taking the time today. Thank you.Now time for some of today's trending tickers. We're watching Tesla and Booz Allen. Joining me now, we've got market domination co-host Julie Hyman. Julie, good to have you here. First, let's set the scene and talk a little Tesla. Tesla's autonomous opportunities could drive the stock up more than 45% from its last close. This is according to one analyst. Wed Bush's Dan Ives, pushing his price target on the EV maker to $500 a share, the highest on.Street and shares of Tesla not moving higher on this a lot, of course a flurry of different headlines always to evaluate with this company. Well,
newsflash. Dan Ives is a bull on Tesla, right? Like we already knew that part, so maybe that's why we're not seeing the shares move that much. His $500 is, I think the next highest price I saw was around $470 by a firm out of China. So you know this is the highest by a.margin here, and Ives, although he has remained a bull, has kind of wavered back and forth this year as we saw um Elon Musk sort of pulling away from the company because of Doge. Then Ives was all back in once he felt like Musk had sort of recommitted and now speaking of recommitment, Ives himself is recommitting to the thesis about autonomous driving, talking about the coming.Um, uh, roll out in Austin of autonomous driving and really says that that is the latest catalyst for the stock. He also says that we could see a $2 trillion valuation for Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months. He says that's because of full self-driving and autonomous.In the cyber cab, and he says we believe that Tesla remains the most undervalued AI play in the market today.
Yeah, saying it remains the most undervalued AI play as you were mentioning. Rome was not built in a day and neither will Tesla's autonomous and robotic strategic vision be many setbacks, he says, but.Uh, unmatched scale scope globally. They believe there's huge opportunity.
I mean, he does acknowledge that there still needs to be a rejuvenation and rebound in the sales in Europe, particularly of the Model Y in Europe and in China.So we'll see. I mean, we learned yesterday that BYD sales last month in Europe had surpassed those of in terms of unit sales had surpassed those of Tesla. So that was an interesting, uh, milestone. So we'll see what happens with their actual bread and butter auto selling business going forward.
We'retracking shares of TSLA. We're also tracking shares of this next company, Booze.Allen falling after the company's forecasts for adjusted EBITA and adjusted earnings per share for 2026 missed estimates shares of BAH. It's a humbug type of move here that we're seeing down 13%.
Yeah, Booz Allen Hamilton, um, a big government contractor, almost all of its revenue comes from the US government and so.So it's not shocking that given what we've been seeing happen with cuts that this would be a company that got affected. So we got a little more color today as to exactly how it's going to be affected and the company says it's going to cut about 7% of its workforce. It has about 36,000 employees. The company talking on the conference call that the sort of defense and security.Businesses held up OK. It's the civil side, um, where there have been cuts in the government that that are are where they're gonna see declines here. The company said also the run rate on 5 large technology contracts has been reduced significantly, and then that that coincided with the ending of a large technology contract it had with Veterans Affairs Administration.Um, and the executives on the call, including the CEO there are Horatio Rozanski, saying that normally when they have these kinds of cuts they can make up for it in other places. In other words, governments always growing somewhere so they get the contracts this time because of the pullback in civilian agencies and spending there, they, they don't have anywhere to redeploy those employees too and so that is why they are seeing the cut.There, um, in, in the employees um and you know, so the company is acknowledging what's going on here. Yeah,
I mean this is massive, especially given that they employ about 35,000, nearly 36,000 people globally, and that was at the end of this most recent quarter here. Julie, we're gonna be watching this as we know you will be too throughout the rest of today's session. You can scan the QR code below to track the best and worst performing stocks of the session with Yahoo Finance's trending Ticker's page.Well, coming up, new home sales soaring last month. We'll discuss what it says about the state of the housing market even as mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. Stay tuned.New home sales unexpectedly rising in the month of April soaring 10.9% from the prior month versus an expected decline of 4%. So what does it say about the state of the housing market? Here with more we've got Chris Tremont, who is the broker associate and owner of X-team at Real Broker. Great to have you here with us. So just take us into your assessment of the unexpected rise in new home sales that we saw during the prior month.Yeah,
Brad, so I,you know, it's great to see that people are, are looking to buy even with the rates at this point. Um, we do have a massive shorting, uh, housing shortage here in the United States. Um, I think it, you know, it trends for people looking to purchase homes for new construction, and it reduces theCompetition nationally um when it comes to home ownership um and I think the incentives that these builders are using you know interest rates in house finance um is a good sign for, for the real estate market.
What are we seeing in in terms of the builds, the types of builds that are really being targeted because that is something that for everyone who's evaluating everything from location all the way out to the pricing that they're looking to get and perhaps even some of the buy down.That all plays a major role in terms of how the buyer is actually coming in speaking with some of these builders and saying OK you know this is our price range and this is what we can afford to ultimately build out.
Yeah, so I mean all there's a lot of builders and and they they all operate differently like one of my builders, they have a cookie cutter, you know, three types of styles you can purchase price points, um, and there's upgrades that you can pay for, um, outside of the purchase, um.You know,Mainly you're seeing colonials because they're stackable, uh, which means you have 800 square feet on the main level, and it's cheaper for the builder to build another 800 square feet on top. Um, you know, in Texas they're doing houses that are grand and, and vaulted ceilings and, um, you know, without basements, the cost for to build a house without a basement is tremendously cheaper than a house, you know, say here in Connecticut where I'm at, um, to build with a foundation.So it, you know, buyers have more flexibility when they do new construction and builders most of the time are willing to, to work with the buyer based on their uh budget, but they got, they got to be at a certain price point to keep the, the.Development, um, cohesive in in terms of like how it looks andstuff.
So for, for fluid buyer activity, what do you think the sweet spot is in the mortgage rate, especially coming off of some of the readings that that have us off of last year's levels but still at least at a rate where there's still a lot of builders out there that are saying OK we're gonna offer this buy down just to alleviate some of that pressure.
Yeah, so the, the buy down is a great thing to, to help offset pressure for a limited amount of time. Most of these buy downs are only good for I think 1.5, sometimes 2 years, but the, you know, the rate goes back up to what it was originally when the, when they purchased the property. Um, it does help them, um.Really it's, it's not all, all about the rate, it's actually more about taxes and and homeowners insurance, um they have a huge impact on that mortgage payment. The rate, believe it or not, isn't that.You know, bad, it's, it's really the, the cost of the I think the closing cost, insurance and the and the stuff that impacts, um, the mortgage payment.
Certainly. So as we're thinking about different areas and, and there's some notable migration, especially within the the Sun Belt areas here, how are buyers who are kind of looking at some of these new properties and and having to make decisions sight unseen what is, what is your advice for how they should go through that process?
Yeah, so that's like I'm familiar, very familiar with sight unseen. I, I help a lot of military families, uh, move to, uh, my area because we have a sub base here. Um, the site on scene process, you know, the, the agent that they hire to help them find a house, you know, really has to be thorough.And very transparent and you must utilize video, um, video record everything from the showings to the meetings to uh you know the inspections and, and, um, and that kind of stuff and also connecting them with, you know, the, the proper vendors like the home inspector and the attorneys and title company, um, contractors um.Yeah, so it's, it's, it's super important, uh, to if you're gonna be purchasing site on scene, um, to first off find the uh an agent that knows what they're doing and, and, uh, how to, you know, operate a site on scene transaction, um, and then use video, like use video for everything and to keep everythingtransparent.
Is there any kind of legal language that you need to also have in consideration if you are purchasing sight unseen?
Yeah, here in Connecticut we have a sight unseen addendum and it basically, you know, relieves any liabilities on us as the broker, um, in terms of if they're not happy when they finally arrive and, and, uh, they, but you know, they, most buyers will do a final walkthrough to confirm everything that was done was done the way that they wanted, um, and sometimes it's not, it doesn't appear the same way in person as it did on video and, uh, so we have an addendum that protects us as brokers, um, you know, if that circumstance comes.
Chris, thanks so much for taking the time with us today. Really appreciate it.The tax bill passed by the House says a major change for Americans. The salt deduction, that's the amount that you can deduct for state and local taxes on your federal return. That means it can reduce the amount of income subject to federal tax, potentially lowering your overall tax bill. It can be used, uh, or.At least it used to be that there was no soft cap, but that changed when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act became law, and that legislation implemented a $10,000 cap on deductions to help pay for the tax cuts, angering lawmakers from high tax states under the new legislation passed by the House, one.The Senate still needs to sign off on the South's cap essentially would increase to $40,000 from $10,000 but only for households making under $500,000. Critics say that this benefits wealthier households and will add further to the national debt, but supporters say it brings back a level of fairness, particularly in high tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California. It's also important to note that you must itemize deductions in order to get the salt benefits. So for some.It may not be worth it. Let's look at some examples. Take for instance a single filer in California who makes $150,000 and pays $15,000 in state and local taxes. Under current law, their salt deduction would be $10,000. Compare that to the 2025 standard deduction of $15,000 for single filers. This person, they're probably going to take that standard deduction over the salt deduction.If this $40,000 cap becomes law, they could deduct all $15,000 in state and local taxes, which equals the standard deduction, meaning they get no additional savings benefit.Now let's take a married couple in New York who make $400,000 and pay $40,000 in state and local taxes. Well, under current law they can only deduct $10,000 in salt, so they take the standard deduction of $30,000. With the new $40,000 salt cap, they could deduct all $40,000 in state.And local taxes. This gives them an additional $10,000 in deductions compared to the standard deduction, saving them about $3200 in federal taxes. So this example also highlights the so-called marriage penalty. The $40,000 deduction cap is the same for both individual filers and married couples filing jointly.Well, according to an April Redfin survey by Ipsos, 13% of current homeowners received cash gifts from family for down payments on a home, and nearly 17% who soon plan to buy said they plan on using cash gifts.And if you're getting help, there is a little extra paperwork that you'll have to deal with. Americans receiving gift funds for their home purchase likely need something called a gift letter. Here to explain, we've got Rulon Washington, executive director of mortgage sustainability at Wells Fargo. Rulon, great to have you back on the program. So can you just explain what a gift letter is and who exactly needs one?
Well, right, it, it's wedding season, so that's a great question. Gift letters are, are one of the, the keys to validating where gifts are actually coming from, right? And so it's the lender's way of making sure that the gift that you're receiving is not a loan or something that needs to be repaid. So verifying your income is a critical step in the lending process. So it's best to work with your lender to understand the specific rules around the loan type, to provide the necessary documentation to verify the funds so that way they are in fact labeled a bona fide gift.Gift letters are one of the many ways to validate, but they're the key reasons for you to be able to describe where those funds are coming from.
What what information is usually in these gift letters? It's not just hey congratulations, you've made this huge milestone in your life, and here's some money. What, what typically has to be in it?
Yeah, so, so the donor, uh, it's using information around how they were to be able to provide that gift. There's gonna be uh a way of area for you to sign the signature area as well too. Ultimately, what could happen is it could be a handwritten letter or it could be a template that could be provided by your lender. So it's standard information, but the goal is to get enough information on that letter to determine that it is truly a gift, right? So it's a sign testament saying, hey,This is a gift for you. It doesn't need to be repaid. It is not a form of a debt. It is not a loan. So the gift letter can be standardized, but it needs to be signed by both parties, the gift and also donor.
Now excuse me for if this sounds very basic, but if a couple gets married and someone stashes 100 bucks in a card and writes, Enjoy your first home as a married couple. Is that, is that considered gift funds and do you need the letter for that?
Good, good question. So timing plays a big part in that, right? So if your lender's looking at your bank statements and they see a $100 deposit from 3 months ago, they're probably not gonna bug you about it, right? But what the, the, the issue is when there's multiple deposits that are in that bank statement and that lender's trying to identify if that's a form of income or if that's a loan, right? So that $100 that gift letter is always important to provide some validation.To what those funds are for, but ultimately $100 it's not that big of an issue. The larger amounts are when you really have to be providing tons of documentation. So they're, they're a bit more scrutinized when you get the $1000 or the $2000 in that in that deposit, $100 depending on the timing, if it's season fund, which means it's at 60 days plus in your bank statement, it's usually a little bit better, a little bit easier to validate those funds with yourlender.
There are different requirements typically right? depending upon the type of home or the loan that you're seeking for that home and and what what might they be?
Yeah, so for a conventional mortgage, usually when you're getting a gift, it's, it's focused on your primary residence or a second home. Usually investment properties, you're not able to use those gifts, right? And then you think about it, FHA loan or a VA loan, gifts, they're a little bit more lenient, right? So you're uh able to get a gift from a family member, a friend, a co-worker, someone from the union, someone from your church, and so there's a little bit more leniency, but with FHA and VA loans, you're not able to use those gifts towards a second home or an investment property.So speak with your lender and really try to get an understanding of what some of the rules of engagement are around using gift funds. The property types do vary, um, but having that conversation with your lender can put you on the straight and narrow.
And so this starts to get into this next question of how the requirements essentially change if it's your primary residence versus uh vacation home.
Right, right. So a conventional mortgage, uh, if you have, it's a second home, right? If it's a part-time home, you're not using it for an investment, you're able to use those gift funds. Really, the gift funds are just a form of down payment. When you think about using gift funds towards the down payment, it's essentially helping you buy down the unpaid principal balance when you're taking out the loan, right? So essentially we want to make sure as the lender that, you know, you're able to afford that current mortgage. So if it is a second home and you're living in there, you're not using it for an investment property, gift funds can be used for a second property like a vacation home.
Ruhan, thanks so much for the tips as always good to see you.Thank you. Coming up, we check in on retail companies after several major earnings reports, several of these reports left investors wanting this week. That is next on wealth.We're excited to partner with Synchrony Bank, our premier sponsor for Wealth. Synchrony Bank is working with Yahoo Finance and Wealth to bring you the insights for your personal finance playbook and help you make your money work for you. Let's get a check on the markets here. We've got the major averages pulled up on my markets board, lovely panel on the right side here, and now we've got a not so lovely chart here. The Dow Jones Industrial Average unfortunately right now you're seeing some slippage. It's down by about 60%. I'm gonna put this on an.Intraday view here and we're off of some of the session loads so that is good news we saw a pretty strong candlestick, so a little bit of flows in to start off the session here but then eventually we're still kind of petering out figuring out how investors are really going to be digesting some of the latest news on the tariff talk specifically targeted towards the EU and also specifically targeted towards Apple. We'll check in on Apple in a hot second here. Also, the Nasdaq Composite you're seeing the tech heavy average low.By about 1%, I'll put this back on the line view here so you can see how that's played out. We've been negative throughout the day for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. That too off of its session lows but still in negative territory by about 0.0%. Checking in on our friends here, let's take a look at some of the sector activity. 11 sectors here on the S&P 500 utilities, the loan gainer, that's up 0.1%. Technology to no surprise, pulling up the caboose, that's down by about 1% right now. Check in on.The Nasdaq 100, why don't we here? And this is where we're seeing that pressure on Apple during today's trading session that's down by about 2.25% specifically, the iPhones sound like President Trump is going to be taking aim at that if there's not production that comes back to the US of course Apple and CEO Tim Cook have long looked across all of the options that they have for manufacturing the iPhone to make it affordable here in the US too. A lot of analyst calls.Uh, one from Dan Ives over at Wedbush reminding that yeah, if that was to take place here in the US you could be looking at a $3500 iPhone. Yikes. OK, also taking a look here at the rest of the Nasdaq 100, just a few spots of green peppered into the mix. I'll put this on an equal view here, uh, essentially only like 1.5.In the Nasdaq 100 of positive gainers here into it though saying hey we're having ourselves a good day don't throw cold water on our parade it's up right now by about 8.3% and we'll ride out with a look at the Dow 30 components. A lot of red, just three positive gainers McDonald's, Chevron, and Coca-Cola.It is time now for our retail earnings roundup. We have heard from a lot of major retailers in the last week, most of them issuing some guidance or even they withdrawing guidance or just trying to add some color around how they are navigating this macroeconomic uncertainty and that is the common theme and tariffs. Joining me now we've.Simeon Segal, BIO Capital Markets managing director here. Simeon, always a great pleasure to grab some time with you here. The consumer discretionary sector we know has been essentially flat in terms of revenue growth, showing no change since March 31st. It's at about 2.8% according to the facts set. I wanna get your read in on this quarter so far.
Good to see you, by the way, how great was that? That is the common theme ta ta and tariffs like that and tariffs is just we're we're never gonna get away from that. Things were looking good and then we wake up today and all of a sudden we're back to another conversation. So I think that is a very big part. I think that it's funny, not since COVID did I care so much when it or or rather not, not that I care, when a company reports.reported mattered so much. When the world shut down, whether you ended in one month or another, told the world about your performance, same thing right now. If you reported before the, let's call it easing of liberation Day tariffs, you went through your guidance, it was all filled with uncertainty and things were tough. If you reported in the two weeks after that, everything was better because you just felt like, you know,What it feels like we're pulling back, we can run a business. If you report after today, we're gonna go back to that. I was looking at about a 25% of my coverage withdrew guidance. That's not a thing you normally see. And so I think this idea of we want to look at companies, we want to think about the businesses, but the and tariffs becomes a little bit all encompassing.
Simeon, it's so interesting because in the onset of the tariff talks policy.And what was going to be rolled out and what got pulled back all of us were concerned about, OK, well for the retail sector seems like China is the big focus and I mean for me at least I was like right, I don't really shop on Xin. I don't really shop on Tu so I'm not really that concerned but now we're talking about Zara now we're talking about Mango maybe getting thrown into the mix here of some of these new tariffs go through. So overall what do these new EU tariffs potentially mean for the retail segment more in sector more broadly?
But you and I, you may not shop at Shen or Tu, but you shop at Nike, right? So in this idea of it went from China to Southeast Asia to now the EU. And so there's nothing that you and I wear that doesn't touch one of these areas. And so the question is what is that? How far do we take this? And so that was the the biggest deal with Liberation Day, to your point. It was people had prepped against China. A lot of the companies have moved out of China, but they moved into Southeast Asia. And so that.Became really under the gun and that became the focus. You're right. I mean, EU from an apparel side, from the vast majority of my world side, there's a reason all of the stocks that I look at on, let's call it the discretionary apparel type of landscape right now are down, but they're not, they have not collapsed. There's few, the, the, the European focus right now is a little bit less intensive for apparel because they're so heavily weighted to Southeast Asia. But I think what it shows you is you're not out of the clear.And so I think waking up to these surprise announcements, maybe they shouldn't be such a surprise, but waking up to that I think is what gets companies to just say, listen, I'm trying to run the business.If you're going to give me more costs, tell me what those costs are so I know how to move on. It's the uncertainty that I think keeps paralyzing decision making, and that is what it was, was so challenging. That's the idea. Withdrawing guidance doesn't mean you don't have some view. It means you have a lot of different scenarios and none of them are really under your control. That's a lot worse. Withdrawing guidance is very different than lowering guidance. We see lowering guidance all the time.But if you and I wanna actually have a thoughtful conversation and the businesses wanna have a thoughtful ability to predict their business, they need to know what costs they're accounting for in thefirst place.
Certainly. So Simeon, if we were to give viewers a little bit of a report card just to really assess how retailers, manufacturers as well are doing over the course of the uncertainty and and what we've heard from earnings here, let, let's start with the, the best of the best if you will. Who's getting an A grade based on how they're passing the test?
Listen, I think what's really important is you put up that I think it was a 2.6 number that I think you grabbed from facts that we're still growing. Like, on average, if I look at my group this past quarter, revenues were still up nicely, gross margin was still up nicely. It's the future that people are worried about. And so setting the stocks aside, you and I are still seeing a Birkin stock.Or in Amer Sports, which again, smaller businesses than the largest grow mid to high teens percentage. There's still companies that are taking share, strong brand equity and are doing a great job, right? Then last night we have Raw Stores, which is an excellent business, right? Generally speaking, you and I talked very positively about off price taking share, but they withdrew their guidance, even though they said the business is looking OK. And so that's why I think right now as you think about that report card.Size will matter, but it's all about brand equity and in a world where you and I are worried about tariffs, the strongest ability to mitigate is having a strong brand that can raise price. And so the A, I would, let's go with Birkenstock.
OK. A grade for Birkenstock. Who needs for this entire thing to be graded on a curve then? Who's kind of the middle of the pack?
So I think right now you watched the TJX, which is an excellent business, right? Still will have long term compounding, but right now this uncertainty, you're worried about potential demand. And so I think from them I would give, I don't know, I'll go B. Let's go, let's let's go B + A minus type of a of a number for, for TJ. This is, by the way, this wasn't prepped. I'm thinking like how do I go through being I've never been a teacher before. I feel like I need to grab a redpen.
You know, uh, I, I keep, I keep a red Sharpie here, but those are even a little aggressive because it's, it's way too thick as you're starting to write through and it bleeds through the paper. That's just, you know, way too demonic in some cases you know in
the spirit of Curves, I'm gonna throw Bath and Body Works in there. They just announced a new CEO, but they just put up as part of that. They announced a, the, they basically gave a pre for the.Quarter, we'll get the actual results next week. And they showed growth for the first time. And so that's from the last, the, the current regime, right? So they're, they're changing, we'll have new, um, we have a new management. But the path of the old management obviously is now shining forth, and we're getting the first growth in a very long time. Looks like we grew 3%. And so you and I have talked about this one in the past, wondering when have people bought enough candles from COVID. It feels like they're there.And so I think on the the spirit of B and B+ are supposed to be who are we looking forward to in an optimistic way I would put Bath and Body Works on the scaling the curve and about to tip over in a good way.
OK,
so whateverletters we're going with.
OK. And so just lastly here, I don't, I don't wanna say failing grade, but I, I will say most room for improvement. Who of the companies in your coverage universe is that right now?
I'dbe such a bad teacher because I'm all about getting A's and B's.
That's, that's the teacher that all the students want to have. I,
that's, I aim, I aim, that's the award I want. I want most favored teacher that gives favored results. Now, listen, I think that you and I can see, especially today, I, I mentioned raw stores, the stock is down, Decker, I don't cover, the stock is down. Like you can see from a where have expectations not lined up. There have beenAnd definitely stocks that have seen some pressure. I think part of that though, again, the question you and I are gonna have to ask as we look forward is how much of that is company specific versus how much of that is a function of, there's just a lot of uncertainty and they're setting the bar. I think an interesting one, again, in the spirit of giving a tougher grade, but a potentially positive outcome from it. American Eagle, which is not one that you and I normally talk about,out and talked about a write down. A write down is very different than a markdown. A write down is very different than macro. A write down means they made an investment bet on their product that didn't work, and they're taking their medicine and they're saying this product is not selling at the price we thought it would. It will not sell at the price we thought it would. So we're going to take our medicine now, mark it down, write it down, we'll discount it later.That means, right, by definition, they would have to take your, we're gonna CD whatever letter you want to give. But the interesting thing is, if you've taken your medicine, if you've already written down that product, anything you sell it at comes in as gravy. And so it'll be one to watch if if they've now sufficient.taking their medicine and have that negative whatever grade that we're giving them next semester, perhaps they're setting themselves up to start clean and
rebuild. So I mean, I, I know you could do deep dive on these companies all day. We got to leave the conversation there. Appreciate the time as always.
Great to see you. Happy long weekend. Same to
you. Coming up, everyone, getting health insurance while unemployed we'll navigate the different options and walk you through the pros and cons of each that's next on wealth.About 24 million Americans signed up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act exchange for 2025, but some changes proposed by the Republican tax bill could see millions of Americans kicked off of its rolls. Here with more we've got Yahoo Finance senior reporter Jordan Weissman. Jordan, what are some of the changes that are coming for Obamacare?
Uh, there are a handful, and, you know, frankly, a lot of them sound a little bit technical, a little bit complicated, but collectively, they could have a fairly big impact. Um, one of the ones people are gonna most notice is you will not be able to automatically re-enroll in your coverage anymore. Um, instead, you're going to have to verify your income, your residence, um, how many people in your household, everysingle year if you want to re up your coverage. Uh, one of the reasons for this, or maybe the biggest reason behind this is that Republicans say it's necessary to combat, um, a rash of fraud on the Obamacare exchanges. Um, there's been this known issue with insurance brokers signing people up for coverage they may not even know about or changing their plans in order to essentially, uh, score a commission.Um, and there have been some DOJ cases around that. It's been a sort of, uh, ongoing problem. People debate the extent of it, but Republicans are making a big number of changes basically under the, you know, uh, under the pre, some say it's a pretense, but for the, um, in order to combat these kinds offrauds.
So if the tax bill passes as is, how will this affect Americans?
Well, again, it's going to be a lot harder to, or it's gonna be a little bit more difficult to sign up for coverage, right? They're gonna be more hoops to jump through, um, things like no longer being able to automatically renew. If you're low income, you won't be able to sign up at any point during the year. You'll have to do it during open enrollment. It could get a little trickier to sign up if you lose a job, um, and then need to find coverage. Um, there are also going to be some potential financial traps. Uh, currently, the way Obamacare works, it's a little bit complicated.you might have heard, but when you sign up, you have to go and essentially guess your income for the coming year. You have to predict how much you're going to make, and that determines how much the government is going to give you in terms of subsidies. Um, if you guess wrong, if you underestimate your income, uh, you have to pay back some of those subsidies. Uh, the way that it currently works is there's a cap on it, so there's a limit on how much you can end up on the hook for. Republicans want to eliminate those caps, andThat's a complicated way of saying that a lot of people could end up with a big tax bill at the end of the year. They might not be expecting. Again, this is part of this push to deal with purported fraud, um, but Democratic critics are concerned this is going to end up penalizing a lot of people who just sort of innocently, uh, you know, guess wrong when they try to figure out how much they're going to make. People whose incomes vary a lot during the years, like Uber drivers, for instance, and people who own their own businesses where revenues might just kind of go up and down.
Jordan, thanks so much for taking the time breaking this down. We're gonna be tracking the bill very closely.Thanks for having me.This week on wealth we're walking you through the financial impacts if you quit your job or are unexpectedly laid off and today we're focusing on health care.If you lose your health insurance through your employer, you have a few options for staying covered COBRA, a marketplace health plan, Medicaid, and the Children's Health Insurance program known as CHIPP. Yahoo Finance senior reporter Angelique Emani is here to break down all of these options. So let's just start Andre with COBR. How does that work and what are the pros and cons? Yeah,
so COBR is one of the ones that came through congressional action, uh, a few decades ago and it.Basically is requiring your employer to continue offering or sort of keep you in the plan that you already are in that can go through about 18 months at minimum it can also extend beyond that but the the one thing that you have to keep in mind is that for that one you have to pay the premium yourself. That's the one thing that changes about so it becomes a little bit more expensive to keep on hand. So let's do the pros and cons of that. So pros are you are keeping.Being in place for yourself, the doctors that you're used to, the network that you're used to coverage as is, um, if you've already started to pay out right through your or uh get coverage, your deductibles in place, your out of pocket is in place so you can continue paying towards that through the year. It also prevents the gap in coverage, uh, for tax purposes as well as generally for your health. It also applies to your spouse or children.And in reverse this is also true if your spouse has a job you can through a special enrollment get coverage through their workplace if you find yourself without coverage of your own so that that's one of the key pros now cons like I mentioned, you're gonna be paying the uh premium yourself now that can be up to 102% and that's because when you're on an employer plan they are paying part of the premium for you so it gets more expensive. It does not apply to.All of the employer sponsored plans, so it just depends and of course this is just a temporary fix and you can lose coverage if you uh pay late. So that's a key point to remember now
what about a marketplace health plan? How do those works and and and what are some of the pros and cons ofthat?
Yeah, marketplace is a little bit better because it is more control over the situation, but let's just go through how you get on that. If you find yourself losing your job, you can look at marketplace and.Instead of COBR, or if you're in a situation where that's not an option and you have about 60 days to enroll in that. It is called a special enrollment period because it is just any of the days that is outside what the normal enrollment period for marketplaces, which is November 1st through January 5th. All the rest of the days is a special enrollment period for any life qualifying reasons. Coverage can start the first day of the next month, so you can get on board pretty quickly.Now the pros of these plans is that like I mentioned it's affordable so you have the monthly premiums and you can get that subsidized depending on your income so that also helps you can also get certain savings uh because of the special event, uh, qualifying special event in your life. The coverage is generally going to be good. You can generally get if you're a localized that same network that you're in your same doctor.If you see someone or if your health care services are in the general vicinity that you live, it also is good because we know that the ACA covered preexisting conditions, so whatever you do have doesn't disqualify you. Now the bad part because of that coverage, the limited networks, if you do see someone who is outside of your general living vicinity or you know work environment that could.Lead to you losing access to your doctors, so that's something to watch out for the high out of pocket costs because these plans generally tend to be um uh high deductible plans and so you lose any payments you've made towards plans with your deductible and out of pocket on top of getting a higher threshold to surpass for the year before 100% kicks in. Also you have those strict deadlines so those are sort of the pros and cons of.
You covered the two main options, but the 30 seconds we have left, what are some of the alternatives that we
have? You you mentioned Medicaid and CHIP. That is just good to know that each state does work through those differently, so you'd have to check based on local rules how and whether or not you do qualify, but those are obviously a little bit more income based. So if you are in that income level, that's another option to take a look at. Angel,
thanks so much. We've got more wealth on the other side stick around.Over half of Americans are planning to take a trip this summer. That's according to a new study from Deloitte. But these travelers are planning cutting down on how much they spend as their economic concerns lead them to right-size their trips. Joining me now to discuss the summer travel trends he's seeing, we've got Brian Terry, who is the Deloitte Global Aviation leader. Brian, good to have you here with us. Why are you seeing travelers cut back on their spending right now?
First, thank you very much for having me today and and appreciate the opportunity. Um, as we look at the travel market, you're correct, our, our data shows that more than half of Americans, 53%, are planning to travel this year. That's up 5% points over last year. However, the way they're traveling and the amount of money they're looking to spend, um, has softened.I think we saw some of this naturally coming out um in the February and March time frame and when we first went to field uh our survey at the end of March, and we saw a noticeable decline and further softening in our April, uh, fielding as well. Um, prior to April, we saw people planning to actually spend 13% more than they were last year. Um, in April that had declined to only 1% more.Um, and the way they are looking to cut back is in through many different factors. One is taking, uh, fewer trips or shorter trips, um, or staying in different type of lodging facilities such as, um, fewer stays in destination properties, more in hotels, um, and rentals, etc. Um, we're also seeing, uh, the focus mostly being on the pullbacks in the domestic market, uh, domestic leisure specifically.Um, for those travelers who are looking for international trips and more premium travelers, um, that demand still is relatively strong relative to lastyear.
Interesting. So what are the perhaps fluctuations in the data or the changes the Delta depending upon age and the demographic?
A great point. So if we look at who's traveling, uh, higher income individuals and families, those with household incomes above 100,000, are, are really representing the majority of growth in travel. We're also seeing growth from Gen Z and we're starting to see.Um, some pull back from the baby boomers, um, so it's that combination of higher income individuals and families who have the ability and desire to travel, as well as the Gen Z, Gen Z population who may not have the same level of income at this stage, um, but their focus and desire on on the experience economy is reflected in their desire for travel.
And so are we driving places more? Are we continuing to fly? What is perhaps the biggest decision factor that you're seeing? We only have a few seconds.
Um, little, little bit, little bit of both. So we're seeing more trips, uh, relative to the overall pie by auto, but we are also seeing a lift or forecasting a lift in air travel as well, um, up 2% year over year.
Brian, thanks so much for breaking this down. I hope you get some good R&R and traveling for yourself aswell.
Thank you and you have a great weekend as well. Thank you.
That's it for wealth, everyone. I'm Brad Smith. Thank you for watching. You can stay tuned for market domination that comes your way 30 p.m. Eastern time. They'll count you down to and through the market close.