Retail report card: Best & worst picks amid tariff uncertainty

Retail stocks are slipping as tariff uncertainty returns to the spotlight.

BMO Capital Markets managing director Simeon Siegel joins Wealth to discuss retail earnings and corporate guidance amid the current uncertain macroeconomic landscape. In particular, Siegel goes over the retailers that are positioned well in the face of tariff uncertainty, such as Birkenstock (BIRK), versus those that still have room for improvement, like American Eagle (AEO).

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00:00 Speaker A

If we were to give viewers a little bit of a report card, just to really assess how retailers, manufacturers as well are doing over the course of the uncertainty and what we've heard from earnings here, let's start with the the best of the best, if you will. Who's getting an A grade based on how they're passing the test?

00:21 Speaker B

So, listen, I think what's really important is you put up that, I think it was a 2.6 number that I think you grabbed from facset. We're still growing. Like on average, if I look at my group, this past quarter revenues were still up nicely, gross margin was still up nicely. It's the future that people are worried about. And so setting the stocks aside, you and I are still seeing a Birkenstock or an Amer sports, which again, smaller businesses than the largest, grow mid to high teens percentage. There's still companies that are taking share, strong brand equity and are doing a great job, right? Then last night, we have Raw stores, which is an excellent business, right? Generally speaking, you and I talk very positively about off price taking share, but they withdrew their guidance, even though they said the business is looking okay. And so that's why I think right now, as you think about that report card, size will matter, but it's all about brand equity. And in a world where you and I are worried about tariffs, the strongest ability to mitigate is having a strong brand that can raise price. And so the A, I would say let's go with Birkenstock.

02:13 Speaker A

Okay. A grade for Birkenstock. Who needs for this entire thing to be graded on a curve, then? Who's kind of the middle of the pack?

02:26 Speaker B

So I think right now you watch the TJX, which is an excellent business, right? Still will have long term compounding, but right now, this uncertainty, you're worried about potential demand. And so I think from them I would give, I don't know, I'll go B. Let's go, let's go B plus A minus type of a number for TJ. This is, by the way, this wasn't prepped. I'm thinking like, how do I go through being, I've never been a teacher before. I feel like I need to grab a red pen.

03:17 Speaker A

You know, I keep I keep a red sharpie here, but those are even a little aggressive because it's it's way too thick as you're starting to write through and it bleeds through the paper. That's just, you know, way too demonic in some cases. But

03:40 Speaker B

You know what? In the spirit of curves, I'm going to throw Bath and Body Works in there. They just announced the new CEO, but they just put up as part of that. They announced a, they basically gave a pre for the quarter. We'll get the actual results next week. And they showed growth for the first time. And so that's from the last, the current regime, right? So they're changing. We'll have new, um, have new management, but the path of the old management obviously is now shining forth, and we're getting the first growth in a very long time. Looks like we grew 3%. And so you and I have talked about this one in the past, wondering when have people bought enough candles from COVID? It feels like they're there. And so I think on the spirit of B and B plus or supposed to be who are we looking forward to in an optimistic way? I'll put Bath and Body Works on the scaling the curve and about to tip over in a good way.

04:58 Speaker A

Okay. And so, then whatever letters we're going with.

05:06 Speaker B

Okay.

05:07 Speaker A

And so just lastly here, I don't want to say failing grade, but I will say most room for improvement, who of the companies in your coverage universe is that right now?

05:20 Speaker B

I'd be such a bad teacher because I'm all about giving As and Bs.

05:42 Speaker A

That's the teacher that all the students want to have.

05:50 Speaker B

That's I aim, I aim, that's the award I want. I want most favored teacher that gives favored results. No, listen, I think that you and I can see, especially today, like I mentioned Raw stores, the stock is down, Deckers, I don't cover, the stock is down. Like you can see from a where of expectations not lined up, there have been definitely stocks that have seen some pressure. I think part of that, though, again, the question you and I are going to have to ask as we look forward is how much of that is company specific versus how much of that is a function of there's just a lot of uncertainty and they're setting the bar. I think an interesting one again in the spirit of giving a tougher grade but a potentially positive outcome from it, American Eagle, which is not one that you and I normally talk about, came out and talked about a writedown. A writedown is very different than a markdown. A writedown is very different than macro. A writedown means they made an investment bet on their product that didn't work, and they're taking their medicine, and they're saying this product is not selling at the price we thought it would. It will not sell at the price we thought it would. So we're going to take our medicine now, mark it down, write it down, we'll discount it later. That means, right, by definition, they would have to take your, we're going to C, D, whatever letter you want to give. But the interesting thing is, if you've taken your medicine, if you've already written down that product, anything you sell it at comes in as gravy. And so it'll be one to watch of if they've now sufficiently taken their medicine and have that negative whatever grade that we're giving them, next semester, perhaps they're setting themselves up to start clean and rebuild.