Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin September returns has typically been negative, and today the token is trading below that key $60,000 level. Joining us for more on this, we got Sean Farrell. He is Fundstrats head of digital asset strategy. Sean, great to have you on with us this morning. So we have been talking a lot about how September is historically the worst month of the year for equities. How much read-through is there from that seasonal and technical, uh, strategy for equities over to Bitcoin in September? A tough month for Bitcoin as well?

Hey guys, thanks for having me and, uh, go Birds. Um, yeah, I mean, look, historically, it is the worst month. I think if you look at the historical averages, September really is the only month in which, uh, Bitcoin has an average negative return. Uh, but, you know, we like to advise our clients and subscribers that, you know, you can't just look at seasonality in and of itself. There are some, you know, structural things that are endemic to seasonality like lack of liquidity that we've seen, uh, really take a toll on crypto markets over the past couple of weeks that, uh, do weigh on prices. Uh, but really, um, you know, for us, we do think you should account for that season those seasonal effects, but really be more focused on, uh, what the Fed's doing, uh, how liquidity conditions are looking and, uh, make sure that any any of these macro factors are are superseding any, uh, you know, broad seasonal, um, uh, factors that that people just slap on to analysis.

And so with that in mind, I mean, what are the biggest events that are still left this year for crypto that investors should be keeping tabs on to to try and figure out what the long-term kind of lead looks like for not just Bitcoin, but Ether and even some of the altcoins as well?

Yeah. So the big thing is obviously, you had just alluded to the the jobs numbers this week. I think, um, you know, rate cuts, I think a lot of the market right now is skittish about rate cuts frankly, um, because historically, they have been at the precipice of downturns in the market. Um, but, you know, rate cuts are not necessarily bullish or bearish, um, without, you know, taking in in into account the context in which, uh, those cuts transpire. And so, you know, our money is still on the soft landing path. I think a lot of the softness in the labor market, uh, isn't as much reflective of a business cycle turning so much as, uh, the labor force expanding. And so, uh, you know, I think once we get, um, some, you know, soft but non-recession non-recessionary jobs numbers, uh, hopefully this week, uh, um, and, you know, next month, uh, we'll have more investors skew away from that recessionary risk and and back towards soft landing into year end, which is very, uh, constructive for crypto prices. Uh, and then the other thing obviously is the election. I think, um, uh, it it would be, um, you know, silly not to view the election as a critical, um, uh, factor, uh, that that that will come into play when when thinking about crypto prices. Uh, you know, we kind of our in-house view is that, um, you know, if Trump were to get elected, that would certainly slap on a premium to, uh, crypto asset prices. Uh, Bitcoin, a lot of alts that will now have a clear path forward in terms of market structure, uh, and, um, you know, legislation that will support their their growth here in the US. And so, um, certainly that is another factor to contend with as we go into year end.