The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI report for February came in below expectations, with a reading of 50.3, missing the estimated 50.7, while the manufacturing prices paid figure surged to 62.4, the highest level since June 2022.
ISM Manufacturing Business Survey committee chair Tim Fiore joins Catalysts to analyze what this reading indicates about the broader economy, focusing particularly on how Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum have affected the data.
Fiore identifies tariffs as the primary concern, noting that the price index's 7.5-point increase during the month demonstrates that "a lot of companies have been impacted by steel and aluminum tariffs." He explains this has suppressed the new order rate as businesses avoid new commitments while they determine "who's going to pay for this."
Despite these challenges, Fiore states, "If you remove ... the one-time tariff issue with steel and aluminum, those numbers will probably recover."
Tim, it's good to have you. So, obviously, some worrisome signs within this report, prices paid rising, new orders below 50, as well as employment, both sagging below 50. What are you hearing from from the business community just in terms of the macro conditions right now? And and whether or not it is deteriorating at a rapid clip?
Yeah, thanks, Shauna. So, I think the whole story here is really around the tariff issue, which is really the prices index. Because the the the fact that the prices index went up 7.5 points, it's it's really impacted the new order levels, the inventory level, as well as the supplier delivery number. Let me explain. So, our prices index really measures the the width of the lake, not the depth of the lake. What this really says is that a lot of companies have been impacted by steel and aluminum tariffs. I think they're 15%, 10 to 15%, but they the spot market immediately went up to that tariff price per ton when the tariffs were announced, even though they don't go into place until the 12th. If you look at the spot market, if you look at the Midwest differential for delivering aluminum, it's up 20 plus percent since I last spoke with you last month. So, what that has done is it's slowed down the new order rate because suppliers are not willing to take new orders unless they agree with their customers about who's going to pay for this. It's also caused an increase in the inventory account because we pulled forward deliveries over the last couple of months trying to avoid these tariffs. There's also, you know, probably some impact from Lunar New Year stuff showing up. And it's impacted the supplier delivery number by raising the number, because some suppliers are obviously refusing to deliver their product unless there's an agreement on who's going to cover these tariffs. So, the good news here is that the new order number, the supplier delivery number, inventory number, are probably a blip. It might be this month, well, we got Mexico and China coming not too far down the path here, that will probably If you remove the the tariff issue, the one-time tariff issue with the steel and aluminum, those numbers will probably recover. The prices number is going to stay elevated. I mean, that's that's really the story this month, is that consistent with the administration's stated goal of the External Revenue Service, and its basis is tariffs, that this is this number is going to stay high. I know I would I would really quiver to think of what would happen if the Mexico and Canada tariffs go into place in the next couple of days, and what that would mean for the PMI for March.
What would it mean?
Well, it's probably going to mean that new order number gets even worse. The supplier delivery number gets even worse. The employment number probably drops more because people are still releasing people now when they really shouldn't be releasing people now. They were much more optimistic a couple of months ago about, okay, we destaffed to the right head count level, consistent with our forecast. But given the uncertainty here driven by the tariffs, and the impacts that that could have on Fed interest rate policies, they're continuing to destaff people using primarily attrition and freezes as a tool, rather than layoffs this month, which I think is a good it's good news, so they're not acting as drastically had that they had been in Q4 of last year, and even to some extent last month. We thought the employment number would stabilize by now, but what this is people are saying is in this phase of uncertainty, I don't think I'm going to carry this head count. I'm not going to reduce my head count proactively, but I'm going to attrite down, meaning if somebody quits, I don't want to replace them right away, and I'm only going to replace people that are strategic to the company. So, and you know, you would expect that if those Mexico and Canada tariffs go into place, that prices number could easily be 80 plus, if not more.
However, he expresses deeper concern about potential escalation, adding, "I really quiver to think of what would happen if the Mexico and Canada tariffs go into place in the next couple of days and what that would mean for the PMI for March."
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This post was written by Angel Smith