Mentions of "uncertainty" on first quarter corporate earnings calls have risen, according to Barron's, as companies assess what's next for US President Trump's ever-evolving tariff policies.
Several CEOs, including those from Nvidia (NVDA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Eli Lilly (LLY), SoftBank (9984.T), and Hyundai (005380.KS), are set to visit the White House on Wednesday as Trump celebrates the first 100 days of his second term.
Former Medtronic CEO and Harvard Business School executive fellow Bill George joins Brad Smith and Madison Mills on Morning Brief to discuss how C-suites are navigating uncertainty during Trump's second term.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.
We’ve got Bill George, former Medtronic CEO, Harvard Business School executive fellow as well. Bill, always a pleasure to grab some time with you here. Just take us into your analysis of how you’re hearing CEOs position their companies and position the commentary around their operations amid what is a very unclear environment beyond the current quarter we may be in right now.
Brad, I’ve never seen so much uncertainty among CEOs about what to expect. Tariffs are changing every day. Look at Mary Barra, you know, one day it’s a big tariff on automobiles, next day, well, maybe we'll hold off on tariffs on aluminum and steel. So how do you project your costs? How How can you really calculate uh what it's going to be? And so I think that's why people are withdrawing guidance. Uh we're starting to see some cracks. Look, the economy has been very strong, but I think the fact that GDP was down 3/10 of a percent in the first quarter is a signal. Uh private payrolls are down. We know the government payrolls are going to be down. So uh I think we have to look at these signals. The market seems to want to go up on any signal that things are going to be better. Any negotiation, the administration’s promising everyone of these. I personally think it is going to take a lot longer. So this lack of clarity on tariffs is going to cause a lot of CEOs to hold off on investments. They're not going to do M&A deals, they're not going to invest in new factories. Some of them are announcing a 10-year plan to invest heavily. That's fine. But in terms of actual uh you know, shovels in the ground, I think you'll see them holding off on new projects for a while until they get some clarity.
Well, CEOs are heading to the White House today in an attempt to get some of that clarity, Bill. To what extent do you think that the CEOs and in the conversations you’re having with them, to what extent do you get the sense that they have any influence over what the White House does on tariffs?
Well, two things. This president really believes in tariffs. He has all of his professional life. On the other hand, he does listen to people in his office. So I think they'll have some influence. We've seen people go to the White House and then they get some kind of relief, whether it was Tim Cook at Apple, you know, or you know, I think we will see the same thing today with the CEOs. But how long that's going to last and the uncertainty, that's what's that's what's cutting. I think CEOs want to invest. They want to invest worldwide, but I think that's a real concern. And now we're seeing some cracks in earnings, the airlines are down. Uh you know, we see Pepsi pulling its uh its guidance uh and others are doing the same thing. The banks are fairly fairing well because of the trading side. Barclays just announced this morning that a very strong quarter. But on the M&A side of the banks, whether it's Goldman or JP Morgan or Barclays, uh the M&A side is very slow right now. So I think it will take a while because these deals are not really even in the pipeline right now. So I think they're going to see CEOs waiting to get some clarity. And uh it's got to be consistent clarity over a period of time. It's not just a promise one day.
Well, Bill, it sounds like some of the CEOs in an industry that you’re very close with in in health care, as the former CEO of Medtronic, they could be on high alert in the coming days, weeks, as it seems like pharmaceuticals are one of the next areas that could potentially see some action on the tariff front. I imagine you’re still having a pulse with some of the CEOs that are in that in that sector, in that space. What are you hearing from them?
Well, I was in touch recently with two very large pharma companies, and uh they’re very much in a uh wait-and-see mode right now. They're concerned because they they got reprieved on the first round, and now they’re being told well, there's going to be tariffs on pharmaceuticals, so they’re kind of wait and see. But I think the bigger issue for them is the changes in R&D. And you’re seeing these cutbacks. I was at Harvard last week and the impact on them of the cutbacks at Mass General and the Brigham, which flows right into the pharmaceuticals and uh the cutbacks in the NIH and overhead is affecting every academic medical center, which is going to flow right into the life science industry. I'm really concerned about this industry for a whole different reason, and that has to do with research that they need eventually to turn into new products. And we're seeing this pretty much across the board. So I worry about a great deal. And the cutbacks of the FDA means that uh you know, approvals are getting slowed. Uh and so I worry about that as well. So I think it's pretty much a wait and see for the pharmaceuticals as well.
Though we got about a minute left. What you’re saying reminds me of something that I remember from one of your books. You said that some CEOs change their values to meet the moment. Others are sort of solidifying their current values. Who wins? The CEOs that push back against the administration to protect things like the FDA versus the CEOs that capitulate to protect their stock price?
I think it's clearly the CEOs that are clear about their values and their purpose. Anticipatory compliance of what might come at you as target practice is not going to work. I think organizations like uh Costco that reaffirm their values uh are going to do much better in the long run. Because your employees, they have huge numbers, hundreds of thousands employees. Employees don't know what to think. They thought these were the values. Now why are they pulling back? And I think that doesn't lead to more Customers, same way. Uh they get confused. So I I feel very strongly, and I say it every CEOs, stay true to your values. You got to run the company uh so that it's going to be around for another 100 years. You need to make decisions now, rather than trying to avoid a short-term hit. Go ahead and take that hit if it means stand up for what you believe.
Bill, great overview. Hope you’ll come back soon. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Brad.