US goods imports plummeted in April, falling by 20% from the prior month. The numbers giving some startling insights into the challenges everyday shoppers may be facing over the next few months. For more on the looming import shortage, let's welcome in Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman for this week's rendition of Trumpnomics. So, Rick, what do we learn from those numbers?

Hey, guys. Uh, you know, most people pay no attention to import data, export data. I do. Uh, and, uh, it's pretty startling when you see the biggest drop month to month in imports on record, in data that goes back to 1992. We know why that is, because, uh, companies do not want to import, uh, stuff from other countries with the Trump tariffs in place. So, a lot of companies that import stuff, there's big companies like Walmart, Walmart, and a bunch of very small businesses. Um, a lot of them are just waiting. They they think maybe Trump will make some of these trade deals, and the current tariff rates will go lower. And if they can get pay a lower tax in the future, uh, they'd rather do that. Others, we know they are actually paying the higher tariffs because, uh, tariff revenue actually went up, even though imports went down in April and May. This is all coming to a store near you sometime soon. I mean, these are not these seem like abstract numbers, but this is telling you that the amount of stuff coming into the United States is declining. Uh, I've been talking to some economists and other analysts who are likening this to the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020, when there were, uh, huge disruptions in supply chains. I mean, think back to what that was like. We had some product shortages on store shelves. After a while, we saw a lot of big price increases. Now, that is not baked in yet. Um, if Trump relents on, uh, his tariffs, then maybe we it won't be quite that bad. But if things stay like they are, we're going to start to see COVID style shortages and price hikes within one, two, or three months.

Rick, switching gears, I have a different question for you, which is, I am curious whether you think the Trump Musk bromance breakup could impact Trump's budget bill. And here I have a note from Brian Gardner, very smart strategist over at Stifel. Here was his take, Rick. Here's what he told his clients, speaking of the bromance breakup. Brian says, unlikely to result in meaningful changes to the One Big Beautiful Bill. He says that does not mean that some Senate Republicans won't try to reduce spending by more than what the House proposed, but Musk's sway among Republican voters, he says, is limited. It's unlikely that he'll be able to influence a legislative process that has already moved well down the tracks. You agree with Brian, Rick? Disagree? What do you say?

Man, I was wondering what your out of left field question was going to be, and I'm like, Musk, Musk, Musk, it's got to be Musk, I guess, right. Um, I think it depends what happens next. I think it depends how hard Elon Musk wants to go after this bill. And you have to keep in mind that, um, Musk does not need to persuade five or 10 or 20% of Republican voters that this bill stinks. I mean, most most Americans are not paying attention to this bill. They'll they'll, you know, figure out what's in it after it passes. What who Musk is talking to is a small number of conservatives in the House and Senate, um, who who don't like the bill. They do not almost none of them want to be the lone Republican who goes up against Trump and bucks his legislation, uh, and might bring down the whole bill. But if Musk gives them top cover, maybe something will happen. So, I think, you know, having tweeted about this bill a few times in the last week, that's not enough. If he really wants to go to the mat and kill this thing, um, he's going to have to keep at it. He's going to have to start talking to people in Congress, um, and and and see what kind of, uh, muscle twisting he can really do. Um, now we do we know where this is headed? I think we have no idea. He is completely unpredictable. Um, he's created a firestorm here. Is he just going to retreat? I think he's going to continue to agitate. I just don't know if it's going to be enough to make a difference.