There has been sort of increased attention on the dollar, I think it's fair to say this year both from a markets perspective and from sort of the DC perspective and talk about the dollar here. Um, we have seen a little more relief on the rate side of the equation in the Treasury market. What are you watching most closely when it comes to the US dollar and where we're going from here?

Well, thank you very much, uh, Julie and, and Josh for having me on your program. Uh, great to be here. Uh, with respect to the dollar right now, what we're seeing is a little bit of a relief rally, uh, technical relief rally. I mean remember, uh, the US dollar yesterday almost hit a three-year low. Uh, so, um, this, this technical relief rally that we're seeing, uh, probably has a little bit more leg considering that, uh, technical conditions are quite extreme and positioning on the US dollar is, uh, quite, quite short. Uh, but I think the fundamental downtrend that started year to date, uh, on the US dollar is intact for three reasons. Um, first, you know, I look at, uh, the US economy and there's, I think a heightened risk that the economy enters a period of stagflation. Uh, just look at the tariffs. I mean, the tariffs, I think that the average overall tariff rate in the US is expected to increase, uh, to just north of 15%. That so that, that would be the highest tariff rate since 1938, and that's up just over almost 13 percentage points year to date. So I think this, uh, protectionist trade policies in the US is a downside risk to growth and an upside risk to US inflation. The second reason, um, I think the, the downtrend of the dollar is intact is that the Trump administration implicitly welcomes a weaker US dollar, especially, uh, against the Asian currency like the Renminbi, for instance. Uh, because this could help, uh, probably correct some of the massive, uh, trade imbalances between the US and China. Uh, and, and finally, and that's the more, more concerning part with respect to the dollar and probably explains some of the, the, um, unusual correlation we've seen in the market lately is that there's been a loss of confidence in US trade, security, and fiscal policies. Um, and, and, um, I think this is, you know, best reflected when you look at the, the, the trend in the US dollar and interest rate differentials, right? The US dollar has been, uh, edging lower lately, whereas yield interest, uh, interest rate differentials have moved in favor of, of the US. And this, so this divergence between the, the dollar and rate differentials, I think is a, is a, um, is a signal of a loss of confidence in US policy and also could accelerate this de-dollarization theme that's been underway, uh, for the US dollar since the beginning of the millennium.

Elias, I, I, when it comes to the dollar, I'm just curious. I think I heard you mentioned it briefly there, but how, how are hedge funds, asset managers, other traders positioned right now? Elias, did you, did you say a position for, for more of a decline in the dollar?

Well, I mean, if you look at speculative, speculators positioning on, on the Chicago Board of Trade, uh, they're quite positioned extremely, almost extremely short, the US dollar. So we could see a bit of a, a short covering if this relief rally gets a little bit more momentum. Uh, and I, I think I looked at the last Bank of America's fund manager survey and also I think, um, positioning on the dollar is, is at extreme. But to me, you know, this, this, this is just a technical, uh, these are technical factors, uh, that doesn't really change the fundamental, uh, backdrop for the dollar. And that is that the outlook is not too rosy at this stage.